As promised, here’s a debrief and photoshoot of Wargaming Initiative NATO 2024, that took place in Hamburg from September 2 to September 4.
Thin Red Line Games had been invited to “facilitate” (present and play) 1985: Sacred Oil. Our undercover intervention team consisted of Comrade Anthony Morphet and, well, me.
The first day was the so-called Icebreaker event, where you basically eat, drink, and do some “networking” activity – that is, trying to obtain classified information from some High Brass debilitated by alcohol or fatigue 🙂
During the second day, things get real and several wargames are deployed and played. We decided to focus on Littoral Commander – West Baltic, where we commanded two Soviet – I mean, Russian – task forces from Northern Fleet trying to force the Skattegat strait and enter the Baltic Sea during a full-fledged war with NATO.
The strait was defend by naval mines and several US Marines units equipped with ASuW missiles. Despite my attempts to convince Comrade Morphet to move his Task Force faster, we lost precious hours approaching the strait and we were not able to reach the planned objectives. Of course, we are not going to write that in our final report.
Some additional HUMINT on other wargames being played is here below.
During the third day, dedicated to the so-called MegaGames, we setup and played a custom scenario for 1985: Sacred Oil, covering the tension period just before a conflict between the forces of Justice and Freedom (Soviet Union and possibly Warsaw Pact) and the capitalist, plutocratic countries (United States, France, United Kingdom and possibly NATO).
I was in charge of the Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces on three theatres (Northern Europe, Central Europe, and Southwest Asia), NATO players were in charge of US CENTCOM, while Comrade Morphet acted as Umpire, White Cells (Civilian government and any command not explicitly included in the scenario), and jack-of-all-trades entertainer.
Comrade Pascal van Overloop also paid a visit, hiding his true identity behind his best smile. He took some additional HUMINT about the NATO strategies and the event. Spasiba Tovarisch!
Following the operational plan prepared by KGB, Soviet Union initially mobilised several Military Districts, Armies and Corps in Turkestan and North Caucasus, while at the same time moving the submarine forces in the Indian Ocean in attack position to cut a possible US Sea Line of Communication from the US West coast to Diego Garcia.
CENTCOM reacted cautiously by starting successful diplomatic talks with Saudi Arabia and trying to obtain additional Intel on the Soviet moves. Last but not least, a SLOC (Sea Line of Communication) was being activated between US and Diego Garcia, the one and only US base in the SW Asia region.
On July 11th (game time), Warsaw Pact launched ZAPAD 85, the largest military exercise to date in central and northern Europe. The operation involved a substantial but undisclosed number of troops from East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and the Soviet Union. Despite clear indications to the contrary, the Warsaw Pact officially claimed that fewer than 25,000 troops were participating, thereby denying any obligation to permit foreign observers at the exercise.
The germ of doubt is now planted in CENTCOM. Is the Soviet mobilisation in southwest Asia the preparation for an offensive in the Persian Gulf, or only a feint to distract from an upcoming European offensive?
After some consultations, CENTCOM decided that ZAPAD 85 was an attempt by the Soviets to sway attention from the Persian Gulf, and accelerated the preparations for deterring or facing a Soviet aggression against Iran. The whole CENTCOM assigned air forces were called in, a new batch of stinger missiles and weapons is sent to the Afghan Mujahidin, and the diplomatic pressure on the Gulf states was increased in order to obtain access to their air space and facilities.
In the end, our evaluation is that CENTCOM correctly guessed the Soviet plan, correctly reacted to the Soviet threat and its possible developments, and the capitalist world will probably survive.
But remember, the Plan had been prepared by our KGB Comrades… Who really knows where the bluff ends?
